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The Atlantic basin is likely to experience a “below-normal” hurricane season this year, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters.
NOAA says with 70% confidence that the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began Monday and runs to Nov. 30, will experience a total of 8-14 named storms.
They forecast 3 to 6 could develop into hurricanes, including 1 to 3 “major” hurricanes.
A major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, possessing maximum sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph.
Such storms can cause devastating to catastrophic wind damage.
A total of 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, constitutes an “average” hurricane season.
In 2025, NOAA predicted an “above-normal season” and a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. While the season produced 13 named storms, for the first time since 2015 not a single hurricane made landfall.
“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in a release.
Strong El Niño conditions is a major contributor to below average predictions. The National Guard, however, has continued to prepare and coordinate with state and federal officials for all possible conditions.
In early May, Florida Guard Soldiers and Airmen came together for a hurricane response exercise at Camp Blanding Joint Training Center to strengthen coordination between subordinate units and staff elements.
In Louisiana, the Guard has prepositioned food and water, according to news reports.
“We’re prepared and we’ll always be prepared,” Maj. Gen. Thomas C. Friloux, the adjutant general of Louisiana National Guard, recently told the Louisiana Legislature Select Committee on Homeland Security.
Hawaii’s preparation for hurricane season was of the real-world variety. The Hawaii Guard only recently concluded several months of missions related to response and recovery from severe weather events in March and April.
By the conclusion of the activation, the Hawaiʻi National Guard had rescued or evacuated 138 civilians and distributed more than 42,000 gallons of potable water to more than 3,200 residents, as well as clearing debris from homes.
—By Jennifer Hickey
